Landestoy Luke
By Landestoy Luke
If you’re a Dodger fan, you gotta be feeling good about things these days. All things considered, being 10 games above .500 and only two games out of first behind the overachieving Padres is a great place to be. The Blue is on pace to win 91 games, which would definitely put them in contention for the division crown or a wild-card berth.
Not so fast, Bum fans. Hate to break it to you, but the Dodgers just aren’t going to get there. Why so little faith from the Luker? L-squared’s personal baseball bible, baseballprospectus.com, gives the Dodgers only a 29% chance of making the playoffs and all it takes is one look at the schedule to figure out why. They have only 16 of their final 74 games are against teams with below .500 records. Only 6 of those games are going to be played at Chavez Ravine. In other words, they’re really really really going to have to earn it if they’re going to the postseason.
Then you have to ask, is this the type of team that can do that? The starting pitching is decent, with Clayton Kershaw emerging as an ace. Past that though, there are more question marks here than at a Riddler convention. Chad Billingsleyalternates between great and ugly. Vicente Padilla has actually pitched well since coming off the DL, but how long can that last? Hiroki Kuroda has run hot and cold (do you realize he’s making $15 mil this year?) and the bubble finally burst on 5th starter Jon Ely. Even if the Dodgers go out and acquire another pitcher, they’re probably just treading water.
Offensively, this team has issues too. SS Rafael Furcal has been a godsend, but he also has chronic injury issues and can’t be relied upon. 1B James Loney has a lot of RBI, but has been generally underwhelming (.309/.361/.442/.803) for a 1B. 2B Blake Dewitt is proving he’s not an everyday player (.269/.359/.370/.728). 3B Casey Blake is providing subpar production in spite of the perception he’s having a good season (.259/.339/.427/.766). The OF is alright, with Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier holding down the fort, but even they have had their issues. Kemp has to deal with a wrongly placed with the label of having a negative attitude and work ethic (can anyone name something this guy has done to deserve this?) and Ethier has struggled since returning from the DL. Speaking of the DL, LF Manny Ramirez is just returning from it, but he’s 38 years old and guys that age don’t bounce back well from injuries. He’ll be a good hitter…just not the type of hitter the Dodgers need him to be. That finally leaves us with Russell Martin (.244/.346/.332/.679), who seems to be following the Jason Kendall career trajectory. It’s quite possible that Joe Torre has worn Martin out to the point that his career may never recover.
So Dodger fans can start making those October plans. Maybe start following USC’s trek to the Rose Bowl or tune in to a new season of Lost.
Landestoy Luke is a former semi-pro baseball player in the California-Nevada Independent League. He cites former major leaguer Aurelio Rodriguez as one of his greatest baseball influences. After spending some time as an advance scout in the Mexicali League, Luke now spends his time as a freelance writer.
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