(All races can be seen on NBCSN or NBC first leg of the pick 5 begins at 11:08am)
For those that follow on facebook and twitter, this analysis is what is up at theracingeditiion.com for the Southern California tracks. Having 25-years of horse racing experience on the backstretch from hot-walking, groom, being a jockey and bloodstock agent to now being a turf analyst.
RACE 7 (BEGINS 1ST LEG OF PICK 5) HUMANA DISTAFF
Pick 5 sequence begins with a tough seven furlong affair for fillies and mares. Local connections abound with three making the trip to Churchill for the undercard.
SAME CROSS(3) has yet to win a Stakes race in her short career and her only attempt was a fifth place finish. Prior to fifth place finish was three for three with Rosie Napravnik on board. Reunites with Napravnik should get a good pace to run at and trainer doesn’t enter horses where they don’t belong.
RUMOR(2) defeated tough knocking Teddy’s Promise (runs this weekend in Stakes race at Hollywood Park) to earn her first Graded Stakes win at Santa Anita. No question that she likes the dirt with two wins coming on conventional dirt and distance will suit her. Work on April 26 was reported to be easily done prior to shipping to Kentucky.
BURBAN(7) is last out winner of Overnight Stakes race at Aqueduct. Mare won an allowance race at this distance on May 31 over this track. Barn fires at 22% with won last start horses.
PICK 5 #: 1, 2, 3, 7
RACE 8 (BEGINS 1ST LEG OF PICK 4, 2ND LEG OF PICK 5) CHURCHILL DISTAFF TURF MILE
HUNGRY ISLAND(6) won last out in allowance race as prep for this Graded 2 event. Filly fires every out and won last year’s running of this race. No worse than third at this distance, filly is major player in this spot.
DAISY DEVINE(3) will be on the front end in this spot and if she can just relax could be on the lead with lots left in the tank turning for home. Has finished first or second in six straight races, during stretch has a monster speed figure of 105.
MARKETING MIX(8) returns to the races after narrowly missing against Zagora in the Breeder’s Cup Filly and Mare Turf in November. Has won at this distance, but feel her best racing is suited for longer distances. Thomas Proctor does well with layoffs of longer than 180-days with a 26% win-percentage and return of investment of $2.75.
PICK 5 #: 3, 5, 6, 8
PICK 4 #: 2, 3, 5, 6, 8
RACE 9 (2ND LEG OF PICK 4, 3RD LEG OF PICK 5) CHURCHILL DOWNS SPRINT
TRINNIBERG(8) was one of the many American entries that didn’t fare well in Dubai in March. To be honest, nothing wrong with finishing behind Reynaldothewizard in Meydan and not many horses take the trip there well. Connections think he might be a go after trip and reigning Sprinter Of the Year could be tough to catch in this spot. Ran over his head in Kentucky Derby last year, also has a win at seven furlongs on dirt.
UNBRIDLED’S NOTE(5) ran second to Jimmy Creed (who is arguably the best Sprinter in the country right now) in Portero Grande in last out, if speed collapses in front of colt should be winging it late. Loves Churchill Downs with a two for two record with one coming in the slop which could prove noteworthy if rains come early.
DELAUNAY(9) won his last five races and going back to May 12 has won seven of eight. Won three races at this distance and gelding is 13 of 38 lifetime. Distance won’t be a factor with five wins coming at seven furlongs. Highest Speed figures in the field with 111 in last race.
PICK 5 #: 5, 8, 9
PICK 4 #: 2, 5, 8, 9
RACE 10 (3RD LEG OF PICK 4, 4TH LEG OF PICK 5) WOODFORD RESERVE TURF CLASSIC
For most race fans this race was circled on the Derby undercard weeks ago when reigning Horse of the Year Wise Dan and Point of Entry were both confirmed to meet-up.
WISE DAN(8) is still the one to beat with five straight wins including devastating a nice field in the Breeder’s Cup Mile in November. Only one race over Churchill Downs turf course resulted in win Firecracker Handicap in July 2011. Distance not a problem and obvious that old gelding won’t bounce as he has shown he can fire in second out after big effort.
POINT OF ENTRY(9) was flattered after winning Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap as second place finisher Animal Kingdom won Dubai World Cup. Take note that horse he finished ahead of in Breeder’s Cup Turf, St. Nicholas Abbey returned to the races with a win in Dubai Sheema Classic on the same day Animal Kingdom ran. Still between the two, have to go with the Champ.
SWIFT WARRIOR(5) might be the sleeper pick in this spot as many in here will be trying to get near the front and get first jump on Wise Dan and Point of Entry. Won last two starts at Tampa Bay Downs and Sam Houston Park. My speed figures have him being the third best horse in the field with a 372 rating, might be worth a couple of bucks.
PICK 5 #: 8, 9
PICK 4 #: 8, 9
RACE 11 (FINAL LEG OF PICK 4, FINAL LEG OF PICK 5) KENTUCKY DERBY
First a warning, since following horse racing when I was five and didn’t know any better I have not picked the correct Derby winner in 33 years. That said, tread lightly and hope one of the four I analyze will be in fray late.
REVOLUTIONARY(3) gets the nod over four I painstakingly tried to choose. Knows where the wire is which is obviously crucial in this spot. Gets Calvin Borel who isn’t afraid to get down on the rail and take the shortest route around Churchill Downs. Has won at two different race tracks and Departing (finished third in Lousiana Derby) came back to win Illinois Derby in next out. Nice price if he ends up firing and getting favorable trip.
VERRAZANO(14) done nothing wrong in four career starts remaining undefeated. Big Brown is the last horse to enter the Derby undefeated and win in 2008. Question for talented colt is what will happen when he is headed for the turn home. Can he extend his lead as he has done in every start or will he wilt after having to thwart challengers once he gets the lead.
LINES OF BATTLE(11) is the only one who has run farther than 1 1/8 miles when winning the UAE Derby in Medan in March. That race he sat off the pace and made his move about two furlongs out and kicked clear. If he can get stalking trip as in that race this colt might be the first UAE Derby winner to take the Roses. Connections definitely wouldn’t run here if they felt he didn’t have a chance as owner John Magnier already has Derby Trophy with Thunder Gulch.
ITSMYLUCKYDAY(12) can’t fault that win in Holy Bull as he was much the best. Finishing second to Orb (likely post time favorite) in Florida Derby can be expected as colt was coming off a layoff while Orb had run three straight races. My figures put him in the mix in the stretch drive and could strike at a big price.
PICK 5 #: 3, 11, 14
PICK 4 #: 3, 5, 8, 11, 12, 14, 16
POSSIBLE TICKETS
PICK 5: 2, 3, 7/ 3, 5, 6, 8/ 5, 8, 9/ 8, 9/ 3, 11, 14 PRICE: $108
PICK 4: 2, 3, 5, 6, 8/ 5, 8, 9/ 8, 9/ 3, 5, 11, 12, 14, 16 PRICE: $90
PICK 4: 3, 5, 6, 8/ 5, 8, 9/ 8, 9/ 3, 11, 12, 14 PRICE: $48
PICK 4: 2, 3, 5, 6, 8/5, 8, 9/ 8, 9/ 3, 5, 8, 11, 12, 14, 16 PRICE: $105
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