Landestoy Luke
By Landestoy Luke
Growing up, while watching baseball, you probably saw the same stats flashed on the screen: batting average, HR, RBI and maybe steals. Slowly, but surely, baseball broadcasts are getting more sophisticated (like the Luker) and providing more information to the viewer. Some have lamented the new fancy-shmancy stats while younger fans have embraced them.
Here’s the argument against the conventional stats.
Batting average: Doesn’t take into account the number of walks a guy takes. It only gives the fan information about what happens when the ball is put in play or when the player strikes out. This stat completely ignores a significant portion of a player’s plate appearances.
RBI: It’s a counting stat. During the course of a season, let’s say James Loney comes up to bat with 350 runners on base and drive in 90. Now, let’s say Ryan Zimmerman of the Nationals comes up during to bat with 275 runners on base and drives in 80. Does this make Loney a better hitter than Zimmerman? Does it make him a better run producer? The average major league hitter batting 3rd or 4th should drive in 75-80 runs automatically just because they are presented with the highest number of chanes to produce RBI. Also, all RBI situations are not created equally. What if Loney has a higher percentage of runners at 2nd and/or 3rd than Zimmerman? What if the runners on base ahead of Loney are better base runners than those in front of Zimmerman? There are too many variables that are independent of the hitter’s ability when it comes to RBI.
Steals: The most precious commodity in baseball is outs. Losing outs is like losing time and possessions in a football or basketball game. Simply put, trading an out for the chance at a base is generally a bad proposition. It is generally thought that the break even point for steals to actually be useful is 75%. If a player is successful in 80% of their attempts, the net gain has been a positive. So while stealing 50 bases may be impressive, it’s not so big a deal if a guy has been caught 22 times.
Wins/Losses: Plain and simple, wins are a stupid stat. What does it take to get a win? Your team has to score runs for you. Your team has to not make errors behind you. As a starter, you have to go at least 5 innings. If you’re a reliever, you just have to be the last guy on the mound when the go-ahead run scored. A starting pitcher can give up 8 runs in 5 innings, but if your offense scored 9 while you were in the game and held on, you are a “winning” pitcher. If you pitch 9 innings, throw a no-hitter, but your team make a couple errors and allows a run to score and your team doesn’t score at all, you are a “losing” pitcher. There are so many things out of the pitcher’s control for them to be saddled with a stat that places the full credit/blame on them.
Sorry to go all stat geek on you guys, but as I go through this column, I’m gonna be talking about some stats you may not be familiar with. I’m gonna drop some knowledge on you guys about those on Tuesday. The Luker’s gonna take a 3-day weekend. L-squared…out.
Landestoy Luke is a former semi-pro baseball player in the California-Nevada Independent League. Luke graduated from Barstow College with a degree in statistics and a minor in Gemology and Lapidary Studies . After spending some time as an advance scout in the Mexicali League, Luke now spends his time as a freelance writer.
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